Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Bayer Leverkusen kicked off their season in devastating style. Not only did they fail to take away any points in a 2-1 defeat on the road to fellow top four side Borussia M’gladbach, an exact replica of their final away match last season, but they left Borussia-Park with even more injuries than they arrived with. While coach Roger Schmidt has forged a team that aren’t only solid at the back – only Bayern and Dortmund conceded fewer last season – but also break forward at pace on the counter-attack, his squad is currently severely plagued with crucial absentees. Newly signed winger Kevin Volland has hit the ground running since joining from TSG Hoffenheim, scoring five goals in his five games to date, but was subbed off with a finger injury in the second half of the opener. Leverkusen played the last few minutes of the match with just ten men as centre back Omer Toprak also picked up an injury after all three substitutions were used.

Hamburg’s 10th placed finish in the 2015/2016 Bundesliga season was a relief for fans, who had been dealing with the ever-present Bundesliga side’s struggle down the lower half of the table in recent years. Hamburg’s ambition for further improvement is certainly reflected in their summer transfer activity: highly-rated Alen Halilovic, who was loaned out to Spanish side Sporting Gijon last season, joins Hamburg from Barcelona. Serbian left winger Filip Kostic joins from Stuttgart (8 goals in 59 appearances), and United States national team striker Bobby Wood joins from Union Berlin (17 goals in 31 appearances). Kostic and Wood made the starting eleven in the opening fixture against FC Ingolstadt at home, where they drew 1-1, with Halilovic joining them on the field in the 66th minute. Bobby Wood, who was dynamic on his competitive debut, scored Hamburg’s only goal.

Both sides have clearly put a lot of work into squad improvement over the summer and while Bayer Leverkusen are the bookies’ favourites for this match at 1/2, we feel the visitors are a much better value bet here. Granted, Bayer Leverkusen won their last five consecutive home matches to end their 2015/2016 Bundesliga season, but Hamburg were pulling their own weight on the road with two wins and a draw from their last four away matches. Bayer Leverkusen are not only doubtful over all three of their core forwards heading into this match – Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, Stefen Kießling, and Kevin Volland – but they are also without captain Lars Bender and centre back Toprak. Leverkusen are stripped thin going forward and without the core of their defensive backbone too. We feel that Hamburg’s fully fit squad should be equal to, if not better, than a severely weakened Leverkusen lineup and expect the host’s winless start to the season to continue.

As such, draw or Hamburg double at 13/8 and 1-1 draw 1-1 at 7/1 with bet365 seem top value and are our choice bets for this match.