Burton Albion vs Scunthorpe Predictions

Burton come into this fixture in fine spirits having won both last weekend and in the EFL Cup during the week. Having beaten Premier League opponents at this venue on Tuesday night, despite going a goal behind, Nigel Clough’s men will surely fancy themselves to take all three points when they welcome Scunthorpe to Pirelli Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

After a bit of a lull, Burton’s last two performances have been very encouraging. Their league game against Barnsley last weekend was postponed, but they delivered a commanding performance against Sunderland prior to that, while their efforts against Burnley in mid-week were excellent. A replication of either of those showings would likely be enough for the Brewers to overcome Scunthorpe.

However, overall, Burton probably haven’t been impressive enough to merit such short-priced favouritism ahead of this match. The hosts have been steady at both ends of the pitch, but they’ve rarely blown anyone away, while they’ve had their fair share of matches where they’ve looked somewhat easy to breach.

What’s more, Burton’s underlying numbers, while being far from the worst, aren’t amazingly impressive. Clough’s men are averaging 1.5 expected goals for per match, while they’re conceding an average of 1.43 at the other end. At home, the numbers are more favourable, with Burton averaging 1.8 expected goals for and 1.3 expected goals against.

Scunthorpe are still in a bad position, though it must be said that Stuart McCall has steadied the Iron’s ship. Since being appointed at the end of August, the ex-Bradford City boss has overseen two draws and two wins. Not only has he undoubtedly restored some solidity to a side that was not competing previously, but the new man in charge has also managed to get the Iron firing in the goals, as they’ve scored eight goals in four matches, compared to five in five under the previous regime.

By making Scunthorpe more useful in the final third, the new boss has had to sacrifice plenty at the back, but the Iron fans will surely accept that if their team continues to compete and get results thanks to more productivity going forward. Under McCall, Scunthorpe are averaging a respectable 1.2 expected goals for per match.

In recent weeks, both Burton and Scunthorpe have offered a more than reasonable amount going forward, though the fact that both are still quite open makes either hard to fancy at the prices on offer. However, a bet on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is definitely not hard to fancy. In fact, given that there’s been an average of 3.1 expected goals in games at Pirelli Stadium this season, coupled with the fact that there’s been an average of 2.85 expected goals in Scunthorpe games since McCall took over, a high-scoring game appears to have been underestimated in the early betting.