Granada vs Alcorcon Predictions

Thanks to the fact that they avoided defeat in Mallorca and the fact that Albacete got beat, Granada’s return to La Liga was confirmed on Tuesday evening. After an excellent campaign, Nazaríes are back among the Spanish elite. They now have nothing left to play for, though the hosts will surely want to treat their fans to one last home win before their sign off for the summer.

Lots of teams have either their home or their away form to thank for occupying a pleasing position, though Granada haven’t had to rely on one or the other, as they’ve thrived both on their own patch and on the road. Saturday’s hosts come into this game with the third-best home record in the division, while they’re currently the best away side. No team has lost less games than Granada on the road, while only two teams have won more games than Diego Martínez’s men at home. Moreover, only one team has conceded less goals than Granada at home this season.

In contrast, Alcorcon haven’t been great on the road. They’ve not necessarily been one of Segunda’s worst travelling sides, but they’ve certainly not been one of the best, while their best performances have tended to come at home, where they’ve conceded only 14 goals this campaign. On the road, they’ve shipped 26. What is perhaps more disappointing is the fact that they’ve scored only 16 goals in 20 travelling matches.

An average of 0.79 goals is poor. Given that Alcorcon average only 0.86 expected goals for, it’s easy to why they’ve found the net with such irregularity. Saturday’s visitors go to Nuevo Estadio de Los Cármenes having failed to score in each of their last two travelling matches, while they’ve only notched in two of their last five. Recent away-day expected goals for numbers of 0.85, 0.92 and 0.75 don’t exactly bode well ahead of a match against one of the best back-lines in the entire division.

Given the above, it’s difficult to side with anything other than a home win. However, backing Granada to simply emerge victorious isn’t the best option. Instead, ‘Granada to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ catches the eye.

For all the visitors lack the forward quality to really test the hosts, they’re not in the business of getting battered on their travels. Alcorcon have conceded more than twice in just one of their last nine travelling matches. They’ve lost six of those nine. Similarly, as good as Granada can be at home, winning three of their last four, they’re not massive scorers. The hosts have notched more than twice in none of their last ten at home, while they’ve only scored an average of 1.32 goals, so backing Granada to record a low-key win makes sense.