Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals has landed in seven of City’s last nine, including their previous four
• Bournemouth have seen under 2.5 goals land in four of their previous five starts
• The Cherries have failed to create 1.0 xG across any of their last four fixtures
• City have failed to score against Crystal Palace and Southampton in their last two games

City need to shake Wembley setback

Manchester City’s season took another hit on Saturday, with their 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace leaving them trophyless. It was a bad weekend for them overall, as wins for Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest put them under huge pressure in the race for the top five.

City can’t afford to dwell on that Wembley loss, as they’re sitting sixth in the table ahead of this clash with a Bournemouth side that have European ambitions of their own. A defeat would leave City needing results elsewhere to go their way on the final day, which isn’t ideal as their visit to Fulham could be tricky.

The Cherries head to the Etihad with a clear rest advantage, while they are just two points out of eighth – which remains a potential European spot despite Palace’s cup success.

Cherries won’t gamble

Bournemouth slipped to 11th after the weekend’s results, but they’re still in a good position to fight for eighth. They are only two points shy of Brentford with a game in hand, while they also have a superior goal difference. A final day home encounter with Leicester should guarantee another victory, so the Cherries can still hope for a European adventure next season.

Don’t expect the visitors to head to City taking risks for the three points, as Andoni Iraola’s side are more responsible defensively that they’re often given credit for. Their games have been quite tight down the stretch, with under 2.5 goals landing in four of their last five starts.

The visitors are also lacking a bit of the attacking edge they displayed in the middle of the campaign. They’ve failed to hit 1.0 Expected Goals in any of their last four matches, recording only 2.9 xG across that stretch.

De Bruyne’s Etihad farewell

City are also looking a little more tense up front, despite Erling Haaland’s return to the side. Under 2.5 goals has landed in seven of their last nine matches, including each of their previous four. Failing to score in clashes with Southampton and Crystal Palace isn’t a great reflection on this City side, while it suggests this game may also struggle to open up.

City’s clash with the league’s worst team finished with them posting 1.7 xG, while they had to grind out a 1-0 victory over Wolves in their last home match. The Citizens had Kevin De Bruyne to thank for the winner that day, while he led the team in shots in that draw on the south coast.

This clash is De Bruyne’s final game at the Etihad Stadium before he leaves on a free this summer. Given the lack of spark City have shown of late, it would be fitting for the Belgian to produce one final piece of magic at this ground. He’s a standout anytime goalscorer option, while under 2.5 goals is a big price given City’s run of stodgy games.