Oxford United vs Rotherham Predictions

• Oxford have League 1’s best home defensive record having conceded just seven goals.
• Oxford have conceded in none of their last seven home matches in League 1.
• Oxford have conceded an average of just 2.6 shots on target at home this season.

Kassam a tough place to go

By losing narrowly at Doncaster last weekend, Oxford slipped away from the automatic promotion places, but they remain in a favourable position, just two points behind Saturday’s opponents, who’re currently in 2^nd place.

Losing last time out wasn’t ideal, though the U’s can be forgiven for losing narrowly on their travels, while they weren’t exactly up against a weak outfit. On their own patch, Oxford are a different proposition, not that they’re a poor side on the road.

Karl Robinson’s title challengers have won six of their last seven at Kassam Stadium and are now unbeaten in eight at home. Not only have they won six of their last seven home matches, but they’ve done so in tremendously solid style, conceding zero goals. Well over ten hours of football have passed since Oxford conceded a goal in front of their own fans. In addition to keeping a clean sheet, the U’s have generally done a good job of restricting teams, conceding an average of just 2.6 shots on target.

Millers shifting through the gears

While Oxford have opted for a solid approach at home, Rotherham, who’re in strong form having won each of their last three league matches, have taken a more cavalier approach on their travels.

When the Millers have played on their travels, the goals have flown in at both ends, though that hasn’t prevented them from picking up regular points. Paul Warne’s men have lost only one of their last five travelling League 1 matches, three of which they’ve won. Each of those five have seen at least three goals go in, while both teams have found the net in the last four.

Defence the key

As the best home defence meets the best away attack, this is no easy game to call. However, from a betting point of view, the hosts are easy to side with. Rotherham may be a strong attacking unit, but they lack defensive strength, which is something that the U’s have in abundance at home. It is this defensive strength that can make the difference on Saturday. Oxford have become very good at nullifying teams at Kassam Stadium, where they’ve not conceded a goal since late August. By dictating as they usually do, the hosts are backed to restrict their free-scoring visitors, who are unlikely to draw their hosts into a frenzied, end-to-end game, before doing what they’ve become so good at doing, which is of course capitalising at the other end.

Those braving the ‘Correct Score’ market can try a 1-0 win for the hosts. Restricting the visitors is likely to be priority for the hosts, so opting for lots of goals doesn’t appeal. Add in the fact that Oxford have developed a knack of securing low-scoring wins, scoring no more than once in each of their last three at home, and a single-goal victory for Robinson’s men is fancied.