Oxford United vs Walsall Predictions

It had looked as though Oxford were on the up, but Karl Robinson’s men were dealt a cruel blow when they lost at home to Coventry a fortnight ago, putting them back down in the doldrums. However, the U’s battled well to take a point from their away match against Wycombe last weekend, so they should come into this home game with renewed confidence.

Oxford’s season is yet to really gather any momentum. The U’s have improved slightly since receiving a few heavy beatings back at the start of the campaign, though they continue to struggle from an offensive point of view, as was abundantly clear both when they welcomed Coventry to this venue a fortnight ago and when they took on Wycombe away from home last time out.

From a defensive point of view, Oxford have steadied the ship; they’re now giving less away and it’s looking less likely that they’ll concede three or four goals when they step out onto the pitch. That is partly down to a decrease in the level of their opponents – facing Barnsley, Fleetwood, Portsmouth and Accrington, most of whom have done well offensively and all of whom currently sit inside the top half, in their first four matches was never going to be easy – and partly down to them simply sharpening up at the back.

However, where Oxford are yet to improve is in the final third. They did offer a bit more of a threat last weekend, but end-product was lacking. As things stand in League One, Oxford currently sit bottom of the expected goals for table.

Walsall are also a side that has not found it easy to carve out clear-cut scoring opportunities this season, despite what the league table may suggest. Having made a fast start to the campaign, the Saddlers’ form has waned of late.

After four wins from their first five matches, the Saddlers have slowed right down. They looked far less threatening when drawing 0-0 with Blackpool recently, while much of the same can be said for their 1-1 draw away at Barnsley and their 4-1 defeat against Doncaster last time out.

Defensively, Walsall did better than the score-line suggested last time out, and since Oxford are struggling in the final third, it’s not tough to see the visitors doing well at the back in this fixture, though they’re not easy to fancy at the other end.

Like Oxford, Walsall also rank poorly in terms of expected goals. In fact, only five teams rank below Dean Keats’ men in the expected goals for table, while they’re averaging a rather modest 1.4 expected goals for on their travels, an average that is skewed slightly by a seemingly one-off performance away at a defensively inept Scunthorpe.

As far as this fixture is concerned, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ catches the eye at the prices. Neither Walsall nor Oxford are looking particularly menacing in the final third at present, as the fact that they’re averaging just 2.44 expected goals for between them suggests, so it’s easy to feel that a low-scoring game has been slightly underestimated in the early betting.