PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam predictions, betting tips & match preview

PSV’s hopes of winning the title were dealt a blow last weekend. The Dutch champions drew 1-1 with Heracles, a result which saw them slip to fourth. That leaves them nine points behind leaders Feyenoord, a gap which already seems too large for them to claw back. If they’re to have any chance of retaining their crown, they have to win this clash.

They face a Sparta side who have won just three of their nine games so far. They are eighth in the table, six points behind PSV. The visitors are nowhere near city rivals Feyenoord, although no side is really. They’re simply happy to be in the same league, having won promotion last term. Can they cap off a solid return to the top flight with a shock win away to the champions?

It’s not the craziest prospect, as PSV simply aren’t scoring enough goals. Philip Cocu’s side have won just one home match all season. They’ve won none of their last three at home in the league, and they’ve scored just one in that time. They’ve averaged 0.5 goals for and against per game so far, so there hasn’t been much entertainment at Philips Stadion.

PSV’s best chance of getting on the score sheet is probably attacking midfielder Gaston Pereiro. The Uruguayan is their top scorer so far with three, having bagged a goal against Heracles last weekend. He found the net 11 times in just 15 starts last season, and the 21-year-old looks to be getting back to that form. He’s well priced for a goal here, coming in at 21/20 to score anytime with bet365.

Don’t expect much action in the first half here, as 75% of PSV’s home matches have been 0-0 at the break. There have been two goals or less in 10 of their last 11 at home, including every home game this season, while they’ve scored 88% of their goals away. They should at least be solid defensively, as the majority of Sparta’s games have been under 2.5 as well. The champions have kept a clean sheet in this fixture in five of the last seven meetings.

With PSV defending well, but looking improved up front, we see this being a low scoring game. They were expected to kick into gear against Heracles, but that never materialised. We’re backing their struggles to continue, with under 2.5 goals our bet here at 12/5 with bet365. When you look at the stats, it’s hard to believe those odds are so high.