Sao Paulo vs Gremio Predictions & Betting Tips, Match Previews

Sao Paulo have had a miserable season where they’ve failed to meet expectations but with the pressure now off, they appear to be finishing with a bit of a flourish. A convincing 4-0 win against bitter city rivals Corinthians prior to the international break has helped heal frosty relations with the club’s fans and they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games in the league overall to move into the safety of mid-table. There is a place in the Copa Sudamericana for 2017 still to play for so they’ll be motivated to continue their good form and finish as high up as possible to try and add some respectability to their campaign.

At home Sao Paulo have been fairly solid with 47% of their home games ending in maximum points including 4 of the last 6. Defensively they’ve been one of the best sides in the division and only 3 sides can better their record of only 0.94 goals per game conceded on average. They’ve kept a clean sheet in a massive 53% of their home games and have let in just 1 goal in their last 5 matches at the famous Morumbi Stadium. Given Gremio have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games, the visitors may have their work cut out to try and get a goal in this match.

The evidence from the Corinthians game suggests Sao Paulo have finally clicked into life in the final third and if they can repeat that level they should be able to find a breakthrough here. Gremio have had a very poor season away from home, where they average just 0.88 points per game. Goalscoring has been a problem for them both home and away with them netting just 1.06 goals per game overall in the league. On the road though, their defence has been far less reliable than at home and it has contributed to them losing 47% of their away matches this term, which clearly is not good enough for a side who had title hopes at one point.

Gremio thought they had turned a corner but were on the wrong end of a humiliating 3-0 home defeat against struggling Sport Recife last time out. They also have one eye on the Copa do Brasil final, which starts next week, so they won’t take any unnecessary risks here and with Sao Paulo suddenly playing with a bit of confidence, backing Sao Paulo to win at 10/11 looks a good shout here.