Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan Predictions

It’s not been a bad campaign for Shandong at all, though Sunday’s hosts have found it tough to land a glove on the top three, as they remain a sizeable 12 points behind SIPG, who’re in 3^rd. Their home form has been strong, so they’ll be confident ahead of this match, though getting the better of the runaway league leaders will be anything but simple.

Inconsistency on the road is probably the main reason as to why Luneng find themselves such a distance behind the top three, though their efforts at home have been very good. On their own patch, Shandong have won four, drawn two and lost one, scoring 12 and conceding five in the process. Interestingly, no team in the Chinese Super League has conceded less goals at home than Shandong, while only Guangzhou have kept more clean sheets in front of a home crowd.

Not only are Shandong’s basic home numbers pleasing, but they’ve also posted encouraging underlying figures. Sunday’s hosts average a very solid 1.93 expected goals for, while they’ve only given up 0.67 expected goals. Luneng have also outperformed their opponents in terms of expected goals in 100% of their home games this season, so it’s easy to see why they’re regularly avoiding defeat at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.

Unfortunately for the hosts, they’re up against the best away team in the division. Beijing have won six and lost just one of their travels this season. Unsurprisingly, no team in the Chinese Super League has accumulated more points on the road. To put Beijing’s away form into perspective, they’ve taken more points away that Shandong Luneng have at home.

Given that Beijing have won six of their seven away games, it’s not terribly difficult to see why they’re warm favourites, though if we scratch beneath the surface, a case can certainly be made for the hosts at the current prices. After all, the visitors will be without their main striker, who is currently away on international duty.

For all Shandong are behind the top three, their efforts at home have been very pleasing. What’s more, their underlying numbers are better than Guoan’s on the road. Not only have the hosts scored more goals at home, but they’ve also created considerably more expected goals for on average, while they boast a superior expected goal difference. The visitors have an average expected goal difference of +0.4 on the road, while Shandong boast an average difference of +1.26 on their own patch.

With the above numbers in mind, we can conclude that the hosts deserve more respect in the betting and thus a small play on a home win offers punters some value.