Chelsea vs Malmo FF Predictions

• Malmo have lost both games so far, conceding more goals than all but one side in the competition
• However, they face a Chelsea side who managed just one shot on target at the weekend
• The Blues have kept six clean sheets in nine matches in the Champions League under Tuchel
• Chelsea haven’t scored more than twice in this competition under the German

Underwhelming Blues

Chelsea moved top of the Premier League at the weekend with their 1-0 win at Brentford, but that victory wasn’t the big boost you’d imagine. The Blues mustered up one shot on target to Brentford’s seven, taking only five shots to the Bees’ 17.

The old adage is that winning without playing well is the mark of champions, but it doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence that the Blues are an attacking force. Edouard Mendy continues to prove himself, but the European champions needed him and a goal from their left-back to bail them out at the weekend.

Malmo up against it

Chelsea may not be on fire, but they’re still 1/10 favourites here for a reason. Only RB Leipzig (8) have conceded more goals than Malmo (7) in the opening two rounds of the Champions League. Meanwhile, only Besiktas (6.5) have a higher expected goals against total than the Swedish side so far (6.1).

Malmo lost 5-1 on aggregate when these two sides met the Europa League in 2018/19 and the Blues should be comfortable winners in this one. However, neither of those games saw over 3.5 goals. Despite Malmo losing heavily twice already, I’m not backing a thumping victory for the shot-shy Blues.

Routine win for hosts

Chelsea haven’t looked clinical of late, while their Champions League run under Thomas Tuchel. They’ve scored twice in three of those games, scoring once or fewer in the rest. Chelsea edged out Zenit 1-0 at home in their last European game at the Bridge, so don’t expect them to rack up the goals.

Since Tuchel’s first UEFA Champions League game in charge of Chelsea on February 23rd, the Blues have kept six clean sheets in nine games in the competition. Their xG against tally is also the lowest in that time, at just 0.73 per game. This is the weakest side Chelsea have met in the competition under Tuchel, so don’t expect the visitors to threaten.

I see this one being a low scoring game, with Chelsea unlikely to rack up a big win on current form. The hosts should comfortably shut down Malmo again, while we’re backing them to score a couple in a routine victory. Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals to be scored is my first tip, while I’m going with 2-0 as my correct score prediction.