Groningen vs De Graafschap Predictions

Although just two places separate Groningen and the Europa League play-off spots, it looks as though a top seven finish will elude Tuesday’s hosts, who’re now six points behind Vitesse in 7^th. A win here would strengthen their chances, though they’ll need to do better than they did against Alkmaar last time out.

Groningen come into this game having been in fine form on their own patch of late. Last time out at this venue, they got the better of Den Haag, winning by a goal to nil, while they edged out Venlo (3-2) prior to that. In fact, Danny Buijs’ men have won each of their last five at home, and in doing so, they’ve posted some encouraging figures. Groningen boast an average of 1.68 expected goals for at home, while they’ve shipped an average of just 0.93, which tells us that they’ve generally created more than they’ve given away.

Based on their recent home efforts, Tuesday’s hosts are worthy favourites, though it is still easy to feel that they’re slightly too short. After all, their visitors have improved in recent times and delivered some pleasing results on the road, so Groningen’s task may not be as straightforward as it looks at first glance.

Playing away has often been something that Graafschap have struggled, especially from a defensive point of view, though that’s not to say that they’ve not delivered some promising efforts in recent times. When they went away to Feyenoord and lost by four goals to nil, Graafschap were struggling to get going on the road, though they bounced back by deservedly beating PEC Zwolle away from home after that, while they competed very well, so much so that they were unlucky to lose, away at Willem II in their penultimate away match.

Last time out on the road, Graaschap beat a Heerenveen side that is currently a point above Groningen in the table by three goals to nil. On that occasion, they kept things tight, giving away just 0.66 expected goals, while they offered up plenty of end-product in the final third. In fact, Graafschap have often performed well away against mid-table teams this season; they beat Zwolle, beat Graafschap, drew against Den Haag, while their recent efforts against Willem and Heerenveen suggest that they could easily go to Noordlease and get competitive.

When the pair met earlier in the campaign, Groningen won by a goal to nil, though their victory was anything but a convincing one. They just about bettered Graafschap in terms of expected goals for, though they managed less shots on target and were certainly not dominant. If we consider that Graafschap have improved slightly since then, coupled with the fact that they’ve held their own away against a few of the teams that are around Tuesday’s hosts in the table of late, then it’s easy to feel that there’s less between this pair than the current betting suggests.

In all honesty, it would be a lie to say that Graafschap are a better side than Groningen, because they’re not. That said, the recent away-day efforts of Tuesday’s visitors have been encouraging and thus they don’t look quite as bad as the prices suggest. After all, Groningen aren’t infallible, nor are they a top side, so with the betting the way that it is currently, a small play on Graafschap to avoid defeat represents a slither of value.