Guingamp vs St Etienne Predictions

Saint-Étienne started off 2019 in the best possible fashion last week with a 6-0 thrashing of amateur side Olympique Strasbourg in the Coupe de France. They fielded a strong starting lineup as Rémy Cabella slotted home three goals and Jean-Louis Gasset’s side go trotting on to the next round of the competition. 

This result was rather in line with Étienne’s recent form as they finished 2018 with just two losses in their final ten games. They have been plodding along rather contently with confident wins over the league’s smaller sides but the Verts have struggled in their big tests against Bordeaux (2-3), Lyon (0-1) and PSG (0-4). They are still to lose to a side in the bottom half of the table and with them beating Guingamp in four of the last five meetings including the most recent fixture which ended 2-1 on the first day of the season, the signs are looking quite good for Étienne ahead of the game. 

Excluding the cup victory against vastly worse opponents, they have still scored 16 goals in their last eight matches, keeping three clean sheets in that time. They have also had a much longer break between matches than Guingamp have had which could benefit them ahead of this match.

Guingamp haven’t been great this season and they rightly sit bottom of Ligue 1 but that win against PSG can’t be ignored. This was the champions’ first domestic defeat in 50 matches and while Guingamp were dominated in terms of possession and chances created, the league’s bottom side still limited PSG to just two shots on target as the Parisians hit 13 off target. The Guingamp back-line held strong and they scored via two penalties to get the win but this performance was a real contrast to the pretty lacklustre side that has played out much of this campaign’s competition. 

They have only won three of their last 14 games but these have all come in their last three matches. However, these were in the aforementioned PSG match, against 19th placed Monaco (2-0) and fourth-tier side Stade Pontivy (4-2). Therefore, it’s not like Guingamp are on any sort of tremendous run. Of course, the wins are favourable but there is still a lot to be worked on in this team which has conceded 18 goals in their last ten matches. 

Guingamp haven’t won any of their home matches this season (L5+D4) and have lost four of their last five matches against Saint-Étienne. While we think their run of form will see Guingamp get on the scoresheet against les Verts who have conceded 13 goals in their last ten Ligue 1 matches, we don’t see the relegation favourites getting the win here due to their horrific home record. Étienne have only won one of their last seven on the road but with them scoring 15 goals in their last five games, we’re going to back them to win 2-1. Marcus Thuram has been Guingamp’s talisman this season and with the 21-year-old scoring four goals in his last three games, we expect him to continue this against Étienne here.