Linfield vs FK Qarabag Predictions

It was anything but straightforward, they had to dig deep on numerous occasions, but Linfield battled their way to a narrow victory both home and away against Sutjeska and are now just two games away from featuring in the Europa League group stages for the first time. Experienced Europa league side Qarabag stand in their way.

Playing in the Champions League qualifiers proved to be too much for Linfield, who were knocked out by Rosenborg after losing 6-0 on aggregate. Such a result does suggest that the Northern Irish side are weak, but they were up against useful opposition and thus shouldn’t be judged too harshly. Since dropping into Europa League qualifying, Linfield have acquitted themselves well.

Against HB first time out in UEL qualifying, Linfield weren’t excellent on their travels, but they delivered a disciplined performance on home soil, winning by a goal to nil, creating 1.4 expected goals and conceding 0.64 in the process. The Northern Irishmen were also impressive when hosting Sutjeska in the previous round, as they once again posted encouraging expected goals numbers, creating 1.53 and conceding 0.81. Such numbers bode well ahead of Thursday’s game at Windsor Park.

Unlike Linfield, Qarabag have only just been knocked out of Champions League qualifying, so this will be the first and only UEL qualifying tie of the season. As a side that went deeper into UCL qualifying that Linfield, Thursday’s visitors, who’ve participated in the Europa League groups stages on numerous occasions, are unsurprisingly favourites ahead of this match, though it’s very easy to feel that they’ve been favoured too much by the early market.

After all, for all they did make it through two UCL qualifying rounds, the Azerbaijanis haven’t exactly impressed when playing away from home, as one win in three suggests. Defensively, they’ve not exactly been poor, shipping two in three and conceding an average of 1.05 expected goals, but they’ve been far from imperious going forward, as an average of 1.06 expected goals for suggests.

Moreover, Dundalk, who hail from Ireland, held Qarabag to a 1-1 draw on home soil back in July, so the Thursday’s Northern Irish hosts should fancy themselves to do well.

In the betting, ‘Linfield +1 Asian Handicap’ stands out. Quite simply, the recent continental performances of both points towards a lesser disparity in quality than the current prices suggest, so backing the hosts to keep themselves very much in the tie ahead of the second leg offers punters a slice of value.