Arsenal vs PSG Predictions

• Arsenal have won seven of their previous eight Champions League games
• The Gunners have won nine of 11 home games in this competition under Mikel Arteta
• PSG lost 2-0 at the Emirates in October and they’ve lost four of their previous eight trips in this competition
• Martinelli has scored in two of his last three games and impressed against PSG earlier this term

Is this PSG’s moment?

PSG’s rise to the top in Europe has included some spectacular Champions League failures over the years. The closest they’ve came to glory was the forgotten 2020 final, when they lost to Bayern Munich in that disrupted season. Thomas Tuchel went against his top-heavy team to grind out that run, but he was quickly dismissed, and the Parisians remained without the European success they’ve craved.

After clearing out their big three, Luis Enrique has turned PSG into a well-functioning team, prioritising young players who are hungry to prove themselves over big names who are looking to cash a cheque. That’s spurred them on to this run to the semis, taking out Liverpool and Aston Villa on their way to the last four.

After a string of strong displays, along with landing home advantage for the second leg, many are proclaiming this as PSG’s breakthrough campaign. However, the youthful edge that has been the spark to this run could turn into a problem in this clash with a wily Arsenal outfit.

Streetwise Gunners are rising to the occasion

Real Madrid’s run to the last eight of the Champions League was met with familiar claims, they even tried to cast an air of invincibility while 3-0 down heading into the second leg. The Spanish side cruised past Man City before edging out Atletico, but they fell apart at the Emirates.

Outside of a momentary lapse by William Saliba with his side 4-0 up on aggregate in the Bernabeu, Arsenal hardly gave Real a glimpse at goal across the two legs. It was notable how quickly Real’s confidence turned to petulance, with cameras gleefully focusing on Jude Bellingham’s shock and anger over the course of the two games.

This Arsenal side is a little short of cutting edge in the final third, but they have an attitude that gets under their opponents’ skin. They’ve become a nightmare to play against, while this season has seen them deliver on the biggest stage. The Gunners head into Tuesday’s game having won seven of their last eight in Europe. The only game they dropped in that stretch came while 7-1 up on PSV, while that run includes a 2-0 victory over PSG in October.

There’s a fear that PSG struggle to deal with Arsenal, while the visitors have tended to go off the boil in this competition once their league campaign has effectively ended. PSG won the French title earlier this month, but they lost their unbeaten record on Friday night despite naming a strong side against Nice. With expectations growing around this PSG side, there’s a concern that their young team could fall short to Arsenal’s dark arts.

Gunners can strike first

Since they returned to the Champions League last season, Arsenal have won nine and drawn twice at the Emirates in the competition. That home record is something positive to draw upon, especially as PSG have lost four of their last eight trips in this competition.

Aston Villa’s intensity in the second-leg of the quarter-finals really caused PSG problems, while the French outfit struggled to finish chances early in the competition. They won’t get many opportunities in this first leg. Excluding the PSV clash, the Gunners have conceded just 2.2 Expected Goals across five home games.

The hosts are also settling into playing without a recognised striker. Gabriel Martinelli has put together an impressive run of form, recording a shot on target in five of his last six games. The Brazilian has scored in two of his last three appearances, while he had two efforts on target against PSG in their last clash. Back him to find the net as Arsenal claim a first-leg lead on Tuesday.