Besiktas vs Malmo FF Predictions

In what is one of the most open groups in the Europa League this season, Besiktas come into this match knowing that a win would guarantee them a place in the knockout rounds. Anything else would leave them in danger of exiting the competition early. Şenol Güneş’ men will be hoping to return the favour having lost by two goals to nil when the teams met in Sweden.

When they beat Sarpsborg by three goals to one in the opening game, Besiktas got themselves off to the perfect start, though their UEL campaign has stagnated massively since then. The Turkish side have failed to win three of their last four matches in Group I, while their performances haven’t been particularly impressive either.

Since winning somewhat fortuitously against Sarpsborg on match-day one, Besiktas really have struggled to get going. They played OK, so much so that they probably were unlucky to lose, in the reverse of this fixture, but each of their other four efforts have left plenty to be desired. Güneş’ men are without a clean sheet in the competition, while they’ve shipped a worrying ten goals. Furthermore, in terms of expected goals, they’ve created more than they’ve given away in just two of their five games.

Malmo have also underwhelmed from a performance point of view, though they’re still in a position to go through, such has been the lack of consistency from all four teams in Group I. They did beat Besiktas in the reverse fixture, but to say that they were convincing would be a lie. The fact that they ended that match with an expected goal difference of -0.47 tells us that they were less creative than their visitors.

The Swedes come into this match having drawn 2-2 with Genk last time out, though they were once again fortunate. The Belgians made the running in that match, created some decent opportunities and deservedly scored twice. In contrast, Malmo managed to snatch two goals in smash and grab fashion. As was the case when they faced Besiktas at home, the fact that that they ended that match with an expected goal difference of -0.79 suggests that they struggled to match their opponents in terms of carving out decent scoring opportunities.

On their own patch, against a Malmo side that has looked less then menacing offensively, Besiktas have the offensive strength to come out on top, though they haven’t given the impression that they’re going to do so but also keeping a clean sheet at the same time. They’ve scored more goals than Malmo, while they boast a far better expected-goals for average, though their poor defensive record, coupled with their rather unappealing average of 1.62, means that combining a home win with ‘Both Teams to Score’ stands out as the best option at the prices.