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Slovakia vs Ukraine Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • City Arena Trnava
Slovakia
Ukraine

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Having missed the World Cup in Russia this summer, Slovakia would’ve been hoping to turn things around once this competition started, though they’re yet to improve their fortunes. Pavel Hapal’s men lost the reverse fixture, while they also lost against Czech Republic last time out.

In the reverse fixture, Slovakia did come off second best, as they lost by a goal to nil in Lviv, though they weren’t completely outclassed. On that occasion, they certainly didn’t do enough to win the game, but you could also say that the Ukrainians didn’t exactly thrive. Moreover, when Friday’s hosts lost at home to Czech Republic last time out, they were very unfortunate. Having created plenty, as the fact that they clocked 2.02 expected goals suggests, the Slovaks were unlucky not to score more than one goal, while they were perhaps a tad unfortunate to concede twice, though the fact that they gave up 1.68 expected goals does tell us that they weren’t exactly tight at the back.

During their first two matches in this newly formed competition, Slovakia have shown glimpses of promise, glimpses that suggest they can make headway in this fixture, though what they’ve done at the back doesn’t exactly paint them in the best light, especially since Ukraine have given very little away.

Unlike the hosts, who looked reasonably open against Czech Republic last time out, Friday’s visitors have kept things nice and tight at the back in their three matches in this competition. When beating Czech Republic away on match-day one, Ukraine shipped just 0.6 expected goals, while they only gave up 0.89 in the reverse of this fixture. Having surrendered just 0.85 at home against the Czech’s last time out, Ukraine are conceding a very pleasing average of 0.78 expected goals, which is far better than the average of 15 conceded by Hapal’s men.

In addition to some pleasing defensive performances, Ukraine have looked useful in the final third. They’ve scored in each of their three matches in League B, while they’re averaging a promising 1.59 expected goals for. Having delivered two goals and 2.04 expected goals in their previous away match, the Ukrainians should go to Trnava in confident mood.

Based on the performances on both in Nations League, it’s very easy to make a case for the visitors, especially at the prices. Having outperformed the Slovaks in terms of goals scored, goals against, expected goals for and expected goals against, backing the visitors on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market represents a slice of value that is tough to pass up.

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