Dynamo Kiev vs Baumit Jablonec Predictions

It’s been a pleasing campaign for Dynamo so far, as they sit top of the group with just one to play. The Ukrainians know that a win in front of their own fans on Thursday evening would seem them finish the group as convincing winners, while a point would also guarantee them top spot. In contrast, the visitors are already out, so they have little to play for.

Dynamo Kiev currently sit top of Group K, though it’s hard to say that they’ve impressed. The Ukrainians have stumbled their way to the summit, as they’ve struggled to really assert themselves, though they have made a habit of scoring important goals at important times, even if they haven’t been massively creative.

Thursday’s hosts have scored an average of two goals per match in the UEL this season, though the fact that they’re averaging just 0.91 expected goals for tells us that they’ve been fortunate to score so many. Unless their creativity improves, such a scoring run cannot continue. Fortunately for the hosts, Jablonec are already out, so they may not face too many problems on Thursday.

Given that they’re already out, it would be reasonable to assume that the Polish outfit have really struggled in Group K, though they’ve played better than their rather unflattering group position suggests. On the road, Jablonec have found it tough to get going, but their three home performances merited more than two points. They dominated (and had the best scoring chances) in the reverse of this fixture, while they were simply all over Rennes on match-day five, as they did everything but get the ball in the net. Such performances bode well ahead, though the simple fact that they’re out and will now have other priorities doesn’t.

Dynamo’s best two attacking performances in the UEL this season have come at this venue, while Jablonec’s worst two performances have come on their travels, so this really is a gilt-edged opportunity for the hosts to confirm themselves as top dogs in Group K.

At the prices, ‘Dynamo Kiev to Win Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out. The hosts have scored at least twice in each of their two home matches in Group K, while Jablonec have conceded at least twice in both of their previous away matches. Add in the fact that it is only the hosts who’ll be interested in winning this match, alongside the fact that the visitors have shipped an average of 1.76 expected goals on the road, backing the hosts to win and notch at least twice in the process is the way to go.