Guingamp vs Marseille Predictions

Marseille picked up a much-needed win last week as they beat Nîmes 2-1 at the Stade Vélodrome to go within two points of 4th placed Saint-Étienne. Valère Germain and Luiz Gustavo got the goals and this is quite a pivotal talking point as they managed to do so without their star man Mario Balotelli. The Italian went off injured after half an hour, leaving the rest of the team do make do without the striker who has single-handedly lead this team over the past few months. He is their second top scorer despite joining in January but walked off against Nîmes with the injury thought to be potentially serious. Nevertheless, they managed to get the three points with Balotelli’s replacement Germain getting a crucial goal. 

Before the Nîmes match Balotelli had scored four of Marseille’s last six goals so he will be a big miss if his injury does turn out to be long-term. Marseille haven’t been impressive enough in defence to make up for the lack of a star striker as they have conceded nine goals in their last four matches despite playing three teams in the bottom ten. They also have a pretty horrid away record with just two wins in their last eleven games on the road which will make great reading for Guingamp fans.

Guingamp are starting to come to terms with the fact that they are too far away from Monaco and Amiens to get automatic survival this season. Eight points separate the teams with six games to go so they will have to target the play-off place that Dijon currently occupy. It really is an incredible relegation battle with Guingamp, Dijon and Caen all separated by just two points with two teams guaranteed to go down. Guingamp can’t be blamed for their lack of effort though as they have thrown up some extremely exciting games over the last few weeks.

They had a dramatic draw at home to Monaco with Stevan Jovetic’s 94th minute equaliser putting a dagger through red and black hearts. They drew again last week in a 3-3 classic away to Strasbourg despite leading twice, throwing away another two points that could have seen them go a few clear of their fellow relegation candidates. They have really struggled with match management in terms of where to concentre though as when their attack has been brilliant, their defence has let them down, and vice versa. Key examples of this have come in their 0-0 draws with Nantes and Bordeaux and then their recent ties with Strasbourg and Monaco. Guingamp are so close to being a side that can comfortably finish 18th but a few mistakes here and there are currently holding them back majorly. 

Marseille have to go into this match expecting to win if they want to restore their reputation as a top club in France but their away form, lack of quality striker and the determination of their opponents all stand in the way of that. While Marseille have picked up just one of their last possible nine points on the road, Guingamp have gained seven of their last twelve. Guingamp haven’t lost any of their last four matches at the Stade du Roudourou and we think this will play a big part in the match here. Marseille have won just two of their last twelve games without Balotelli (one against relegation favourites Caen and the other at home to Bordeaux who played more than an hour with ten men) and with Guingamp’s home record, we’re backing the hosts to get another draw and another massive point for their survival bid. None of Guingamp’s last five home matches have seen over 2.5 goals so we’re going to back a 1-1 draw here.