MK Dons vs Crawley Town Predictions

By beating Newport last weekend, MK Dons lifted themselves up to a pleasing 4^th position, and after winning each of their last three in League Two, Paul Tisdale’s men find themselves just two points shy of the automatic spots. This home match against a Crawley side that is without a win in four provides the hosts with the opportunity to extend their winning run.

MK Dons were a tad fortunate to beat Carlisle in their penultimate fixture, though there was nothing lucky about their commanding win over Newport last time out. From start to finish, the Dons were on top, while they created considerably more than their opponents, as the fact that they finished the game with an expected goal difference of +1.63 suggests.

In addition to a pleasing performance last time out, MK Dons have looked very good at home in recent times. They’ve scored multiple goals in their last three at Stadium mk, while they’ve easily exceeded 2.0 expected goals for in each of those, posting figures of 2.74, 2.68 and 2.74. Such numbers tell us that Tisdale’s men are intent on getting on the front foot, and they’ve clearly made light work of creating chances as a result. A repeat of any of their last three efforts at home should be enough to see them register a fourth straight win.

While MK Dons have looked menacing at home of late, Crawley have looked reasonably weak on their travels. Saturday’s visitors have won just one of their last 13 away games, while they’ve not exactly shaped as though they’re going to dramatically improve that record any time soon. They’re not offering a great deal in terms of creativity, while they don’t look overly secure at the back either.

However, what they have done in recent times is take advantage of attacking teams on the break, at least to the point where they’ve found the net. Crawley recently found the net away against an attacking Bury side, while they also notched against Swindon. Like MK Dons, both of those sides looked to play on the front foot, so Crawley shouldn’t be discounted offensively in this match.

To be completely honest, when we consider MK Dons’ recent home efforts in conjunction with Crawley’s recent away antics, this is a match that the hosts ought to be winning. As they’re averaging 2.21 expected goals for at home, compared to 1.26 averaged by Crawley on the road, the Dons have offered lots more going forward than their opponents and it is this extra attacking quality that can see them through.

Having said that, while they do offer lots more going forward, backing MK Dons simply to win appears to offer little value at the current prices. Instead, getting behind ‘Mk Dons to Win & Both Teams to Score’ makes plenty of appeal. For all the hosts have looked menacing going forward at home of late, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last four and have given up expected-goals against numbers of 1.11, 1.6, 1.65 and 1.17. Combine this with the fact that Crawley used the counter attack to get at other attacking sides such as Bury and Swindon and backing the visitors to get on the score-sheet as they get overpowered stands out as a viable option.