Rennes vs FC Astana Predictions

By travelling to Poland and returning with all three points, despite being under pressure for most of the contest, Rennes have given themselves an excellent chance of progressing to the knockout rounds. The Ligue 1 side, who’re under the temporary stewardship of Julien Stéphan following the dismissal of Sabri Lamouchi, need to beat Astana in this match and a place in the last-32 will be theirs.

Having secured a much-needed win against Jablonec on match-day five, Rennes know that qualification is in their own hands. When the teams met earlier in the group, Astana won by two goals to nil, though Rennes played reasonably well, so much so that they were unlucky to lose. Back on their own patch, Stéphan’s men will surely fancy their chances of returning the favour. Fortunately for the hosts, their best performances in the group have come at this venue. They were convincing winners against Jablonec, while they were the much better side against Dynamo Kiev, despite losing.

Astana have proven themselves to be tough to face during this campaign. Thursday’s visitors have lost just once and even that was something of an unjust defeat. In addition, they’ve posted some encouraging underlying numbers, as they’re averaging 1.2 expected goals for and are giving up just 0.97 at the other end, which tells us that although they’re not the most creative side, they’re tough to get at.

However, the fact that they were the better team in the revers fixture, coupled with the fact that they have a very positive average expected goal difference of +1.16 suggests that Rennes can have things their own way on Thursday evening.

The bet that stands out is ‘Rennes to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’. Astana have acquitted themselves very well in this group, but their attacking deficiencies may just prevent them from getting competitive enough in the final third on Thursday. Away from home, they’ve averaged just 1.09 expected goals for, whereas Rennes are averaging 1.65 at home. They didn’t get the rub of the green at home against Dynamo, but the hosts are fancied to make amends on this occasion.