Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Predictions

• Eight of Arsenal’s 12 games this term have featured under 2.5 goals
• The hosts have kept four successive clean sheets
• Palace are underperforming their xG tally by the biggest margin in the division

Tricky timing for Eagles

On paper, this clash pits together two of the Premier League’s strongest performers so far. It’s little surprise that league leaders Arsenal also lead the way in terms of underlying numbers, conceding the fewest Expected Goals. However, only the Gunners have outperformed Crystal Palace in Expected points, while the Eagles have the highest xG tally in the league.

The problem for the visitors is that this test doesn’t exactly come at the ideal time. Palace are winless in three, losing twice. Thursday’s shock 1-0 defeat to Larnaca in the Conference League was a setback, while the visitors are also the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to scoring, netting 12 goals against an xG of 17.4. That’s not the best statistic ahead of a visit to the league’s strongest defence.

Gunners chase 20-year record

Arsenal continued their winning streak with a 4-0 victory over Atletico Madrid in midweek, while they’ve been installed as odds-on favourites for the league title. After early-season chatter about their defensive style holding them back, they’re now being backed to finish the season as the best backline in league history.

Chelsea set the record for fewest goals conceded in 2004/05, letting in only 15 goals across the campaign. The Gunners have shipped just three in eight league outings, while they’ve not even faced a shot on target in each of their last two Premier League games.

The Gunners have held their opponents under 1.0 xG in nine consecutive games across the league and Champions League, so chances will be hard to come by for the visitors.

Backs-to-the-wall job for visitors

Palace played out a thrilling 3-3 draw last week, but expect a change in approach for Sunday’s visit to the Emirates. The Eagles were much more reserved in their league opener at Chelsea, drawing 0-0 in a clash which was low on clear-cut chances.

They head to an Arsenal side who have seen eight of their 12 matches finish with fewer than three goals scored. The Gunners’ four matches to go over 2.5 goals have tended to see them overperform their xG, something they’re unlikely to do against Palace.

Under 2.5 goals appeals at odds-against, while the Gunners will need some magic to create openings. In Martin Odegaard’s absence, look to Bukayo Saka as an anytime goalscorer. The winger had five shots against Atletico in midweek, while he’s scored in both of his home starts in the league this term.