Each of Vitoria’s three home defeats have come against the top five. Outside of that, they’ve won eight of nine home matches. Struggling Gremio are winless on the road, losing eight of their 12 trips.

Orsense have lost five of their last seven home matches, while the visitors have won three of their five visits to the sides below them this term.

Three of Emelec’s last four matches have seen both teams score, while Manta were beaten 4-3 in their last game. The visitors have struck in each of their last three away matches, while Emelec have only failed to score once at home this term.

Each of Vitoria’s three home defeats have come against the top five. Outside of that, they’ve won eight of nine home matches. Struggling Gremio are winless on the road, losing eight of their 12 trips.

LASK conceded 11 times across three away defeats in the Conference League in 2024/25, while they lost 3-0 at Celtic in qualifying last month. AEK thumped Levski Sofia 4-0 in their home qualifier, and they can exploit the visitors’ defensive issues in Europe.

Over 2.5 goals landed in all 10 of Brugge’s Champions League matches last season, while they scored at least three goals in four of their five home matches. Villa have yet to score in the league this season, but they generated 1.93 xG in Saturday’s draw with Hull.

NEC Nijmegen have seen at least three goals scored in their last seven matches across all competitions. Excelsior have made a strong start, winning three of their four games. The visitors have netted 10 times this term, but they lost this fixture 5-0 last season.

Bolton are yet to find the right balance in the Championship and they are taking on a West Ham side, who have scored 14 times in their last four matches. Take over 3.5 goals at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Villarreal have seen four or more goals scored in three of their four La Liga games this term, winning none. They generated 1.74 xG in a 1-0 loss at Alaves, so they should be good for a thriller against a Dortmund side that beat Hoffenheim 3-2 at the weekend.

Over 2.5 goals landed in all 10 of Brugge’s Champions League matches last season, while they scored at least three goals in four of their five home matches. Villa have yet to score in the league this season, but they generated 1.93 xG in Saturday’s draw with Hull.

Villarreal have failed to win any of their opening four La Liga games, and they face a difficult trip to Dortmund on Tuesday night. The Yellow Submarine fell 3-2 at home to promoted Deportivo on Saturday, and they were beaten 4-0 at Dortmund in last season’s League Phase. The Spanish side were beaten in seven of their eight Champions League fixtures last term.

Barcelona have been in blistering form going forward this season, scoring 17 goals across their four matches. Feyenoord head into this game as heavy underdogs after losing six straight away games in Europe, but they’ve made a high-scoring start domestically. The Rotterdam side have scored 13 times in their opening five Eredivisie games, and they can prey on Barca’s high defensive line to find the net in a defeat.

Sporting won their first five home matches in the Champions League last season, which helped them to reach the quarter-finals. Galatasaray’s European run came in spite of their poor away record, which saw them lose five of their six trips.

Como make their European debut on Thursday, and Cesc Fabregas’s side can make a winning start when they host RB Leipzig. The Italian side impressed on their way to a top four finish in Serie A, and they’ve secured wins at Napoli and Genoa in their last two matches. Leipzig fell to a defeat against Werder Bremen at the weekend.

Estrela’s first four games of the season have featured three 2-2 draws and a 3-2 victory at Nacional. They can expect the goals to continue against Braga this week, as these sides shared 2-2 and 3-3 draws last season.

AZ Alkmaar have the chance to extend their lead at the top of the Eredivisie on Friday night, after winning all five games this season. They’ve scored 16 goals across their five victories, and they host a Willem II side who have suffered three defeats from four.

Chelsea’s wait for a Premier League clean sheet has reached 19 matches, and the Blues have conceded twice in all three of their league games under Xabi Alonso.

Both teams have scored in Sassuolo’s last four matches across all competitions, and they’re creating plenty of chances. Only Roma have registered more shots on target than Sassuolo across the first three rounds of Serie A, but they still look shaky at the back.

This weekend’s visit to Brest should be the perfect chance for PSG to bounce back from their slow start. They’ve won 22 of the previous 24 meetings between the sides. Since February 2025, they’ve claimed two 3-0 wins and a 5-2 victory at Brest.

Only Arsenal beat Brugge at home in the Champions League last season, and Villa look vulnerable after claiming only one point in the league so far. Both teams scored in six of Brugge’s European games last term, so back them to win and concede.

AEK Athens have won nine of their last 11 home matches in Europe, including their 4-0 victory over Levski Sofia in qualifying last month. LASK have been beaten in eight straight away games in Europe, including their defeat at Celtic in the final round of qualifying.

City aren’t quite right yet under Enzo Maresca. They may well come good but Lens away was arguably the worst road trip from Pot 4 while Napoli and Leipzig represent stern tests from Pot 3. And then there’s PSG and Barcelona. Altogether a tough test.

The home game against Bodo/Glimt and trip to Slavia ought to be the bedrock of a campaign in which Dino Toppmoller’s impressive group – who have already beaten PSG in the French Champions Trophy – can emerge successfully.

Barcelona could easily lose in Paris, legitimately drop points at Galatasaray and at home to Man City. One more slip and the top eight could feasibly elude them.

Blackburn have hit a bump in the road with just one point from the last nine on offer and they could struggle when hosting Sheffield United. The Blades won 2-1 at Ewood Park in the EFL Cup last month and have picked up the victory in their last three trips to Rovers.

Cardiff are yet to win on their Championship return and have lost their last two matches heading into the visit of Stoke. The Potters are on a two-game winning run, beating Norwich 1-0 and Charlton 4-0, and they look capable of taking all three points in Wales.

Premier League Bournemouth are favourites to beat Lincoln, who were promoted to the Championship this season. But the Cherries have gone out at this stage in each of the last two years, while the Imps played a strong side when thumping Blackpool 4-1 in the last round and they have upset potential.

Bolton are yet to find the right balance in the Championship and they are taking on a West Ham side, who have scored 14 times in their last four matches. Take over 3.5 goals at the Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Newcastle have kept only one clean sheet under Matthias Jaissle, but they’ve scored at least twice in all four of their games this season. Millwall have generated over 2.0 Expected Goals per league game this season, while conceding 7.2 xG across their five matches.

Crystal Palace secured their first Premier League win of the season in a 3-2 thriller against Fulham on Saturday and their EFL Cup tie with Middlesbrough may be entertaining too. Boro have yet to be denied a goal in seven outings this term and both teams can get on the scoresheet at Selhurst Park.

Swansea have made an encouraging start on their travels, beating Stoke 2-1 and Derby 3-0. They head to a Southampton side who have seen BTTS land in each of their last six matches.

After starting the season with two 0-0 draws, Sheffield United have been involved in some high-scoring contests. The Blades drew 2-2 at Cardiff before winning 3-2 against Bolton, while last weekend brought a 3-1 home loss to Norwich. Blackburn have seen BTTS land in four of their five Championship matches this term.

Arsenal were flawless 12 months ago and should have no difficulty getting to the 16 points which are probably required.

BVB came close to the top eight last season and have a great draw this year with Betis, AEK Athens, Sabah and even Inter Milan at home looks winnable.

PSV’s hammerings of Napoli and Liverpool last term were rare highs in an otherwise disappointing campaign. This season’s draw looks far kindlier for Peter Bosz and his Eredivisie big-hitters.

The final is in Madrid next spring and a Madrid side may well be there.

Real, 15-time winners, were quarter-finalists last year when they went out in a shooting spree against Bayern Munich and they look better equipped this time.

Jose Mourinho, a two-time winner of the tournament with two different clubs, is back at the helm and whether or not that is a positive will forever be debated.

But just look at the group of players at The Special One’s disposal.

That front three of Jude Bellingham playing in and around Vinicius Junior and the extraordinary Kylian Mbappe, with any of Arda Guler, Endrick, Yan Diomande, Rodrygo and so on and so on, makes mouths water.

Mourinho has also looked to improve them defensively though the likes of full-backs Denzel Dumfries and Marc Cucurella will do far more bombing forward than sitting back in this team.

It is desperately hard to make a case for sides outside the top six.

Inter Milan, possibly, at 28-1 or Atletico at 40-1 given Diego Simeone’s men have become such a major player in Europe.

Three-figure runners are clearly easier to ignore but PSV have a puncher’s chance and will be desperate to avenge last season’s flop when they finished 28th in the league phase despite scoring more goals than Man City.

This was a team capable of thrashing Napoli 6-2 and Liverpool (away) 4-1, but a 3-0 loss at Newcastle in between home losses to Atletico and Bayern did for them. This time round, their draw looks far easier and if nine points is the benchmark then it is easy enough to see them getting those from home games against Brugge and Shakhtar with a trip to newcomers Viking a massive plus.

Peter Bosz has held on to last season’s top scorer Ricardo Pepi and added defensive quality in Filip Kostic and Lutsharel Geertruida.

Guus Til, Sergino Dest and Ivan Perisic are big players in a team who should make the top 24 and, with a kindly draw, have a slim chance of outrunning their odds.

Kylian Mbappe had an explosive World Cup winning the Golden Boot with 10 goals.

That followed a season in which he scored 42 goals for Real Madrid – plus several more for France – and he has started this season with a hat-trick in his second club game, a 4-1 win over Sociedad.

Mbappe fired off 18 shots in his first two games for Real this season and will rack up chances. And if he racks up chances he racks up goals, quite likely enough to win the Golden Boot.

Top goalscorer betting in the Champions League invites each-way bets given the number of potential runners with so many teams looking to get 10, 12 maybe even more games under their belts.

Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy took full advantage of that in the first instalment of the new-look Champions League in 2024/24.

Again, the German powerhouses only reached the quarter-finals but in that time the Guinea international popped in 13 goals, tying top-scorer honours for the competition with Raphinha of Barcelona.

He scored 22 goals for Dortmund last term and is a major threat in this market at a fancy price.

And finally – and this is trusting PSV to get to the last 16 as a bare minimum – how about the Dutch side’s American frontman Ricardo Pepe.

Eindhoven boss Peter Bosz was delighted to see Pepe stay this summer and the 23-year-old is already among the goals in the Eredivisie.

Pepe scored 19 times for PSV last season and in a side who will score plenty of goals in the mood, especially at home, he again could outrun his odds.

Dortmund were 4-0 winners over Villarreal in last season’s League Phase, but that was one of only two clean sheets they kept in 10 European games. The visitors have failed to win a league game this season, despite boasting the league’s third-highest xG created.

Real Betis have made an encouraging start in La Liga, picking up three wins from their first four matches. They return to Champions League action for the first time in 21 years, and they meet a Lille side who sold key names this summer, while manager Davide Ancelotti is embarking on his first European campaign as a manager.

Barcelona have been in blistering form going forward this season, scoring 17 goals across their four matches. Feyenoord head into this game as heavy underdogs after losing six straight away games in Europe, but they’ve made a high-scoring start domestically. The Rotterdam side have scored 13 times in their opening five Eredivisie games, and they can prey on Barca’s high defensive line to find the net in a defeat.

Both teams have scored in two of Liverpool’s three games this season and they are yet to draw a blank. Atletico Madrid played six games against Premier League teams last season and scored in four of those games, including a 3-2 defeat at Anfield. The Reds have only failed to score in one of their last 15 competitive home games stretching back into last season and Atleti have hit seven goals across four games so both attacks are in decent form and both can get on the scoresheet.

Arsenal won all eight of their league phase games last season and have made a perfect start to the new campaign with four wins on the spin, including a Community Shield success against Man City. The Gunners can maintain their perfect start by seeing off Napoli, who have lost back-to-back games and failed to progress beyond the league phase last year.

Sporting won their first five home matches in the Champions League last season, which helped them to reach the quarter-finals. Galatasaray’s European run came in spite of their poor away record, which saw them lose five of their six trips.

Como make their European debut on Thursday, and Cesc Fabregas’s side can make a winning start when they host RB Leipzig. The Italian side impressed on their way to a top four finish in Serie A, and they’ve secured wins at Napoli and Genoa in their last two matches. Leipzig fell to a defeat against Werder Bremen at the weekend.

Manchester United should be far too strong for Azerbaijan’s Sabah FK, who had to come through four qualifying rounds to reach the league phase. United have won nine of their last 10 competitive home games but the visitors can grab a consolation strike against a defence that has shipped six goals in three games. Sabah are yet to draw a blank this season and hit five goals in their weekend league assignment. This is the biggest game in the visitors’ short history and they can mark the occasion with a goal at Old Trafford.

Manchester City have won their first three games of the season, and the Citizens should prove too strong for Porto. The hosts have conceded only one goal domestically, but they’ve faced 4.6 xG across five matches, and City’s quality should see them capitalise on that and add to their return of three wins from four meetings.

Villarreal have seen four or more goals scored in three of their four La Liga games this term, winning none. They generated 1.74 xG in a 1-0 loss at Alaves, so they should be good for a five-goal thriller against a Dortmund side that beat Hoffenheim 3-2 at the weekend.

Betis have won 1-0 on three occasions this season, and Lille lost by the same scoreline in home meetings with Red Star and Aston Villa in the Europa League earlier this year.

Mbappe has already scored four goals for Real Madrid this season, and he finished with 1.78 Expected Goals in Friday’s 1-0 loss to Real Betis. The Frenchman scored 15 times in 11 Champions League games last term.

Guirassy has scored in both of his league appearances this season, and the forward netted twice in last season’s win over Villarreal.

Haaland has scored three times across his last two matches, and the forward struck eight goals in 10 Champions League appearances last season.

Dortmund were 4-0 winners over Villarreal in last season’s League Phase, but that was one of only two clean sheets they kept in 10 European games. The visitors have failed to win a league game this season, despite boasting the league’s third-highest xG created.

Real Madrid have won three of their first four matches this season, generating 12.0 Expected Goals. They host an Inter side who have lost five of their last six games in this competition, scoring in all but one of those defeats.

Villarreal have seen four or more goals scored in three of their four La Liga games this term, winning none. They generated 1.74 xG in a 1-0 loss at Alaves, so they should be good for a thriller against a Dortmund side that beat Hoffenheim 3-2 at the weekend.

Real Betis have made an encouraging start in La Liga, picking up three wins from their first four matches. They return to Champions League action for the first time in 21 years, and they meet a Lille side that sold key names this summer, while manager Davide Ancelotti is embarking on his first European campaign as a manager.

Manchester City have won their first three games of the season, and the Citizens should prove too strong for Porto. The hosts have conceded only one goal domestically, but they’ve faced 4.6 xG across five matches, and City’s quality should see them capitalise on that and add to their return of three wins from four meetings.

Real Madrid have won three of their first four matches this season, generating 12.0 Expected Goals. They host an Inter side who have lost five of their last six games in this competition, scoring in all but one of those defeats.

You’ll never win anything challenging on two fronts, they said. You’ll never win anything playing the way you do, they sniped.

Arsenal proved the doubters wrong with the latter, almost wrong with the former and stronger this season than they were last, expect the Gunners to have a real shot at going one better in Europe.

Mikel Arteta’s men were simply fabulous in the Champions League last year, winning all eight group games – 3-1 wins over Inter Milan and Bayern and a 4-0 drubbing of Atletico the highlights – and gutsily squeezing past Leverkusen, Sporting and Atletico before succumbing to PSG in the final in Budapest.

That game finished 1-1 and went to penalties but we all know it was a mismatch.

Arteta knows, therefore, the gap between his side and PSG needs to close and shrewd summer transfer work might have enabled him to do that.

The arrivals of Ezri Konsa, Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis add quality and, critically, depth and if Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka can stay injury free – something the Norwegian wasn’t often enough – then there is everything to like about this most solid of groups.

You absolutely can challenge on two fronts – Arsenal have proved that and bear a Premier League winner’s rosette as proof.

The next step is conquering Europe and having come so close on May 30 take them to get it right this time.

After leading Manchester United to the Europa League final in 2025, Ruben Amorim is aiming to go one better with new side AC Milan.

The Rossoneri have literally bought into Amorim’s tactical approach, breaking their transfer record to sign Goncalo Ramos to lead the line. They’ve also spent £42million on Diego Moreira, a winger converted to a wing-back at Strasbourg.

Amorim can lean on the experience of Luka Modric in midfield and Mike Maignan in goal, while the club have some young talents who look suited to Amorim’s approach in Davide Bartesaghi and Alphadjo Cisse.

While Amorim underwhelmed in England, his United side secured some impressive European results, as did his Sporting outfit. Armed with one of the stronger squads in Europe’s second-tier competition, Amorim can help Milan lift this trophy for the first time.

Read our full Europa League outright preview

Arsenal won all eight of their League Phase games last season, before seeing off Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting Lisbon and Atletico Madrid in the knockouts to reach the final.

The Gunners lost on penalties to PSG in Budapest, but they’re well-positioned for another strong showing in Europe.

Arsenal’s squad depth helped them balance their Champions League run alongside their Premier League success, and they’ve added Ezri Konsa, Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis this summer.

Last season’s title success should shed some of the tension that has gripped Arsenal in big moments, and they’ll hope Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka can stay fit enough to add cutting edge in the final third.

Defensively, the Gunners look like the strongest side in the competition, and they’ve gone a step further year-on-year in Europe across the previous three seasons.

Read our full Champions League outright preview

After leading Manchester United to the Europa League final in 2025, Ruben Amorim is aiming to go one better with new side AC Milan.

The Rossoneri have literally bought into Amorim’s tactical approach, breaking their transfer record to sign Goncalo Ramos to lead the line. They’ve also spent £42million on Diego Moreira, a winger converted to a wing-back at Strasbourg.

Amorim can lean on the experience of Luka Modric in midfield and Mike Maignan in goal, while the club have some young talents who look suited to Amorim’s approach in Davide Bartesaghi and Alphadjo Cisse.

While Amorim underwhelmed in England, his United side secured some impressive European results, as did his Sporting outfit. Armed with one of the stronger squads in Europe’s second-tier competition, Amorim can help Milan lift this trophy for the first time.

Read our full Europa League outright preview

Monaco have spent the last couple of seasons in the Champions League, losing 5-4 on aggregate to PSG in last season’s knockouts.

They’ve appointed former Flamengo boss Filipe Luiz as their new manager, and the former Chelsea defender has an impressive track record. He led the Brazilian side to their domestic title, and brought continental success in the Copa Libertadores.

Strasbourg reached the last four of the Conference League last term, and this Monaco side are capable of going even further under a highly-rated young manager.

Read our full Conference League outright preview

Monaco have spent the last couple of seasons in the Champions League, losing 5-4 on aggregate to PSG in last season’s knockouts.

They’ve appointed former Flamengo boss Filipe Luiz as their new manager, and the former Chelsea defender has an impressive track record. He led the Brazilian side to their domestic title, and brought continental success in the Copa Libertadores.

Strasbourg reached the last four of the Conference League last term, and this Monaco side are capable of going even further under a highly-rated young manager.

Read our full Conference League outright preview